Baseline and Business-As-Usual Report

Our Energy Guelph created an Analytics Subcommittee to provide the foundation for evidence-based decision making. This group consisted of the following individuals:

  • Alex Chapman
  • Jake DeBruyn
  • Jim Moore
  • Michael Hogan
  • Mike Kazmaier
  • Patrick Sheridan

The Analytics Subcommittee commissioned a procurement process to identify a vendor to perform the following analyses:

  1. Energy and emissions baseline inventory
  2. Projections for energy and emissions to 2050 assuming a business-as-usual scenario, including geospatial representations of key energy- and emissions-related parameters (i.e. energy and emissions maps)
  3. Simulations showing the package of actions, and assumptions related to those actions, that is most likely to deliver the energy and emissions reductions necessary to achieve the new targets (see below)

Sustainability Solutions Group was selected to perform this work, which was delivered in the report entitled City of Guelph Energy and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Baseline Inventory, 2016 & Business-As-Usual Scenario, to 2050.

Input data for the report was obtained from the following sources:

  1. City of Guelph Planning division
  2. City of Guelph Transit and Transportation Demand Management divisions
  3. Guelph Hydro Electric Systems Inc.
  4. Union Gas
  5. The Kent Group Ltd.
  6. Ontario Ministry of Transportation
  7. Municipal Property Assessment Corporation

The key insights from this report are:

  1. Since 2006, energy use per capita in Guelph has declined only slightly (2%). Significant additional action would be required to meet the original CEI target of 50% reduction in per-capita energy consumption over 2006 levels by 2031.
  2. Since 2006, GHG emissions have declined markedly; if this trend persists, Guelph will attain the target of 60% reduction in per-capita GHG emissions over 2006 levels by 2031.
  3. Under a business-as-usual scenario (based on available information regarding expected policy directions and industry trends), absolute energy consumption and emissions are expected to be approximately the same in 2050 as they are today.  Anticipated gains in efficiency will be offset by increased consumption arising from economic and population growth.
  4. Aggressive action would be required to match the provincial target of 80% reduction in absolute GHG emissions by 2050. Even more aggressive action would be required if the plan were to adopt the goal of achieving these targets without the use of offsets.

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